Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy joined CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning to talk about his expectations for tonight. McCarthy claimed polls are underestimating support for Trump in Wisconsin, and laid out how he thinks Harris is faring in Pennsylvania.

— Ece Yildirim

A voter walks with his dog after casting his ballot in the First-in-the-Nation midnight vote for the New Hampshire primary elections in the Living Room of the Tillotson House at the Balsams Grand Resort in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, on January 23, 2024. 

Sebastien St-Jean | AFP | Getty Images

Harris and Trump tied the midnight race in Dixville Notch, an unincorporated community in a small New Hampshire township where there are six registered voters this year.

Three of those voters went for Harris while the other three went for Trump. The polls opened at midnight and closed at 12:07 a.m. E.T.

Since 1960, Dixville Notch voters have followed the tradition of submitting their votes in person in a wooden box just after midnight, before the results are announced minutes later.

Though the Dixville Notch result is not a predictive measure, the tradition has kicked off Election Day events for decades of night owls.

This year, the Harris-Trump tie happens to mirror the dead-heat race that polls have been reporting over the past several months. In 2020, President Biden received all five of the Dixville Notch votes cast before winning the overall race.

— Rebecca Picciotto

Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures during an 11th Hour Faith Leaders Meeting in Concord, North Carolina, U.S., October 21, 2024.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group are trading higher this morning as investors make some of their final bets on the former president’s company in his final hours in the race against Harris.

The DJT stock was up roughly 9% at one point before the market opened.

The meme stock tends to fluctuate, but over the course of the election, it has often been viewed as a proxy gauge for Trump’s chances at a second presidential term.

Wall Street analysts listed it as a stock to watch going into Election Day.

Read the full story here

— Fred Imbert and Rebecca Picciotto

Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump holds up a fist at a campaign rally at the Santander Arena on November 04, 2024 in Reading, Pennsylvania. 

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images

Trump closed out his campaign on Monday with four rallies in three swing states: Two in Pennsylvania, plus one each in North Carolina and Michigan.

On Election Day, the only officially announced event is the Trump-Vance watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida.

— Kevin Breuninger

Duke University students wait in line with residents of Durham County to cast their ballots at a polling site on campus during the penultimate day of early voting in the state, in Durham, North Carolina, U.S. November 1, 2024. 

Jonathan Drake | Reuters

More than 77 million Americans have already cast their ballots by mail or in person, according to NBC News’ tally of the early vote.

That’s far less than in 2020, when more than 100 million Americans voted early. But those results came in the middle of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic, when many Americans avoided public gatherings and states had greatly expanded absentee and early voting rules.

Trump criticized early voting in 2020 — a stance that may have helped President Joe Biden clinch several key swing states.

While Trump has at times waxed nostalgic about single-day voting in the 2024 cycle, both his campaign and Harris’ have mostly encouraged their supporters to vote as soon as they can.

NBC’s data, provided by TargetSmart, show Democrats slightly leading Republicans in the early vote tally, 41% to 39%.

Among the seven key battleground states, more registered Democrats appear to have voted early in three — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — while registered Republicans lead in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.

Voters fill out their ballots for the presidential election during early voting ahead of the polls closing November 5 at the Detroit Elections Office in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 28, 2024. 

Rebecca Cook | Reuters

What it all means for the final result is far from clear.

While early-vote figures are often viewed as a signal about certain voters’ enthusiasm or expected turnout, it’s hard to predict how many more voters will show up on Tuesday. It is also difficult to know ahead of time whether a party’s early vote share is “cannibalizing” its Election Day turnout.

An NBC analysis found that among early voters in 2024 who did not vote in 2020, Democrats outpace Republicans in Pennsylvania, and female Democrats are the biggest group of new voters in the state.

In Arizona, however, there were more Republican new voters than Democratic ones, and male Republicans led the way.

— Kevin Breuninger

Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris smiles during her campaign rally, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, U.S., November 4, 2024. 

Eloisa Lopez | Reuters

After storming Pennsylvania on Monday, Harris’ Election Day schedule is relatively sparse — at least for now.

The only item on her agenda is an election night watch party at Howard University, her alma mater in Washington, D.C.

The campaign will hold an event at “the Yard,” the main quadrangle on campus.

Walz and his wife, Gwen Walz, are also set to participate in a political event in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, NBC News reported.

— Kevin Breuninger