America's housing sector is set to see nearly 14 million homes belonging to members of the baby boomer and Silent generations be released to the market over the next decade – though it may not directly lead to an influx of starter home listings, according to a new report.
An analysis by Realtor.com found that 13.9 million homes are currently owned and occupied by baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation, which are likely to be released to the housing market between 2026 and 2036.
That figure represents an increase of 33.7%, or 3.5 million homes, when compared with the prior decade's pace for older households; or an increase of 74% or 5.9 million homes over what baby boomer and Silent Generation households handed off in the last decade.
However, the influx of homes being released onto the market over the next decade will have a relatively minor impact on the supply of starter homes with two or fewer bedrooms – as a high retention rate for homes in that category means just 0.38 million are expected to be released over the next decade.
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Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu authored the report and told FOX Business that the "direct impact on first-time buyers of starter homes will likely be limited, because relatively few of these homes will be released onto the market."
"There is, however, a second indirect mechanism: when existing starter homeowners trade up to family-sized or large homes, their starter homes become available, which could add to starter home supply," Xu said. "Because this channel works indirectly, it will take time to materialize."
The report noted that the annualized release rate for starter homes amounts to 38,000 per year, which represents just 3.2% of starter home listings in 2026.
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The generational shift in the housing market is expected to have a larger impact on family homes, which are classified as having three or four bedrooms, with an estimated 9.9 million units released over the next 10 years. On an annual basis, the release of about 1 million family homes would account for about 24.7% of recent listings in the category.
The expected average release of 360,000 large homes per year would account for 67.2% of recent listings, and if just half reach the market (33.6%), it would mark the largest relative increase of any segment in Realtor.com's analysis and the area where the generational succession will have the most immediate impact.
The estimated 10-year retention rate among members of the boomer and Silent generations is projected at 70.7% for starter homes, compared with 61.2% for family homes and 63.6% for large homes.
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Realtor.com noted that those dynamics are likely to contribute to weaker pricing in the family and large home segments, potentially making it more affordable for those currently living in starter homes to trade up.
"For family homes and larger homes, we expect real price softness to emerge gradually, driven by the large volume of homes these segments will release and by slower household growth on the demand side," Xu said.
"If homebuyers are looking to move up to a family home or a larger home, the timing may actually work in their favor. These two segments are expected to see a notable supply boost of all three we studied, more inventory, more negotiating power, and likely some price relief as this plays out over the next decade," Xu said.