Europe’s divisions were once simple. Fiscal policy and sunshine? That was a north-south carve-up: grey, abstemious north; sparkling, spendthrift south. Migration and wealth? Newcomers were mostly tolerated in the rich west and despised in the poor east. Only the wine-beer-vodka spectrum, which produced a twice-diagonal split, was more complex. When crisis struck, these familiar dividing lines helped. Predictable splits are easier to manage.

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