Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at J.S. Dorton Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., November 4, 2024. 

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Trump says if he is elected president, he would impose a 25% tariff on all Mexican imports unless the country enacts stricter border regulations.

If Mexican leaders “don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I’m going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send in to the United States of America,” the Republican presidential nominee said at his first rally of the day in Raleigh, North Carolina.

He added that it was the first time he had announced the proposal, though for months, a central plank of his economic platform has been a hardline approach to tariff policy. Trump has floated a 20% tariff rate on all imports from all countries with an especially high 60% rate on China.

Economists and Wall Street analysts view Trump’s hyper-protectionist trade policy as a potential threat to America’s inflation recovery, just as consumer prices have begun to cool from their pandemic-era spikes. In turn, the Harris campaign has branded the tariff plans as the “Trump sales tax.”

— Rebecca Picciotto

Early and absentee voting begins for 2024 US presidential elections in Alaska, United States on October 21, 2024. 

Hasan Akbas | Anadolu | Getty Images

The minimum wage in three states could get a bump on Tuesday.

If history is any guide, ballot measures to raise the minimum wage in Alaska, Missouri and California will likely win support from a majority of voters and lead to bigger paychecks for workers, said Sebastian Martinez Hickey, a state economic analyst at the Economic Policy Institute.

“Since 2014, 12 states have passed minimum wage increases through ballot measures,” Martinez Hickey told CNBC.

Voters in Alaska will decide if they want to hike the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2027, with adjustments pegged to inflation after that. Ballot Measure No. 1 would raise the minimum wage to $13 in 2025, and to $14 in 2026.

Alaska’s current lowest possible hourly pay is $11.73, so the increase would be significant for those at the bottom of the earning scale.

In California, Proposition 32 would increase the minimum wage to $18 from $16. The timeline of that boost would vary by employer size, giving businesses with 25 or fewer workers until 2026 to have to pay that amount.

If the measure is successful, larger employers would need to raise the wage to $18 in 2025, and to $17 for the rest of 2024.

— Annie Nova

IAC Chairman Barry Diller said that if Harris wins the presidency he hopes she will bring conservative billionaire Elon Musk to her administration to cut costs.

“Call him and say ‘You know what, Mr. Musk, you are truly a great cutting executive,'” Diller said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning, before praising Musk’s work at X and calling him “a deserved megalomaniac.”

“‘Come in, help our government. You’ve got absolute authority, cut everywhere,” Diller mused.

Diller also said that he would like to see Harris appoint a Republican with foreign policy experience as secretary of defense.

— Ece Yildirim

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger speaks during a press conference on Georgia’s Presidential Primary Election Day, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., March 12, 2024. 

Alyssa Pointer | Reuters

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger urged voters to be on the lookout for false or misleading election claims, warning some are coming from foreign sources who want Americans “fighting amongst ourselves.”

Raffensperger, the state’s top elections official, pointed to a recent social media video that showed someone claiming they would vote for Harris multiple times in Georgia.

“It was all made up, and it actually came from Russia,” he said during an election update this morning.

U.S. intelligence officials said Friday that the video was manufactured by “Russian influence actors.”

“So I think we as Americans, we just need to sit back sometime and make sure that you’re really hearing the truth,” Raffensperger said. “Because there’s a lot of bad people out there that want to just kind of get us fighting amongst ourselves.”

“We know who they are. We know Russia, China, Iran. There’s a list of them. It’s a basket full. And they’re just not really our friends. And if they can create us fighting amongst each other, then they feel like they’ve won,” he said.

— Kevin Breuninger

John Paulson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning that he has seen some internal Trump campaign polling showing that Trump is leading or tied in all the swing states.

The polling was done “outside the campaign” over the weekend, after a surprising poll on Saturday showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa.

“I agree that the race is very tight, but I’m optimistic that [Trump] will win,” Paulson said.

— Ece Yildirim

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes an announcement on the future of his campaign in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. August 23, 2024. 

Thomas Machowicz | Reuters

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is asking people to nominate candidates for positions across a potential Trump administration, according to a post on his Make America Healthy Again website.

The call for nominees is a surprising move from Kennedy, who appears to be at odds with the co-chair of the Trump transition team, Howard Lutnick, over what his potential role might be.

Lutnick recently said Kennedy is not in line for a Cabinet position. “He’s not getting a job for HHS,” Lutnick told CNN’s “The Source,” referring to the Health and Human Services Department. On Sunday, Kennedy told Fox News that Lutnick was wrong, and if Kennedy wanted to be HHS secretary, Trump “would fight like hell to make that happen.”

Still, for Kennedy to be seeking nominees to a potential administration through his own website, and not a Trump campaign site, ahead of the election, is highly unusual. A Trump campaign spokesman did not immediately reply to a request for comment from CNBC about the nomination site.

The Make America Healthy Again site says it is looking for nominees across 12 categories, including health, economy and government efficiency. At the bottom of the page, there is a form to fill out in order to nominate someone. Once a person is nominated, their profile posts to a public website, unless the nominee specifies otherwise.

Kennedy would likely have a role in health in a Trump administration. He previously ran for president this election cycle before dropping out and endorsing Trump.

— Jake Piazza

A smartphone displays the logo of Donald Trump’s Truth Social app on March 25, 2024.

Anna Barclay | Getty Images

Shares of Trump Media fluttered up and down in heavy trading on the day before the election.

DJT shares were initially up more than 4% after the market opened at 9:30 a.m. ET. But the stock turned negative shortly after, and was down more than 2% by 9:50 a.m.

Earlier Monday morning, Trump Media stock was down as much as 8% in the premarket.

Many of the company’s retail investors are supporters of the former president, who are buying the stock as a way to back Trump or bet on his odds of winning the election.

Trump owns nearly 57% of the company, which operates the Truth Social platform. Trump Media executives have said that the company would benefit if Trump beats Harris in the election.

— Kevin Breuninger

Pollster Ann Selzer on MSNBC.

MSNBC

The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll that showed Harris leading in Iowa within a margin of error came as a major surprise — even to the pollster that conducted it.

“This was a shock poll,” J. Ann Selzer, the president of the Des Moines-based polling company that conducted the survey, said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

“I’ve been shocked since Tuesday morning last week, so I’ve had the time for this to sink in, because no one, including me, would have thought that Iowa could go for Kamala Harris,” she said.

The poll, which was released Saturday, showed Harris ahead of Trump by 47% to 44%. Though that lead was within the survey’s margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, it was a marked seven-point shift from September. Harris’ edge was partly fueled by a 28-point lead over Trump with independent women voters.

“If you’re a Democrat, you’re really looking at this and hoping that it means something for states like Michigan and Wisconsin that appear to be deadlocked battleground states,” Brianne Pfannenstiel, the Des Moines Register’s chief politics reporter, said on CNN.

— Rebecca Picciotto and Dan Mangan

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, U.S., November 3, 2024. 

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Top Trump campaign officials acknowledged the possibility that their nominee may not win as they briefed staff about how operations will wrap up after the election.

An internal email, signed by senior advisors Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita and obtained by NBC News, tells campaign staff that their last payroll day is Nov. 30, “regardless of the outcome of the election.”

The message reflects standard procedure for any operation that will soon close its doors, but it is noteworthy when anyone in Trump’s orbit nods to the possibility that he could lose.

If Trump does win, many of the employees will be reassigned to either the Trump-Vance transition team or the president-elect’s inaugural committee, the email says.

Those working at the campaign headquarters in West Palm Beach are advised to clear their work areas of personal belongings by Nov. 10. The space will be converted to handle the transition and inaugural teams, “God-willing,” Wiles and LaCivita write.

“As the campaign comes to a close in a few days, please be proud of the work you have done and the contribution you have made to President Trump and Senator Vance [and their] work on behalf of freedom, security, the financial health of our nation, and to peace around the world,” they write.

“Most of all, be proud that you worked to Make America Great Again.”

— Kevin Breuninger and Jonathan Allen, NBC News

SpaceX and Tesla founder Elon Musk awards Judey Kamora with $1,000,000 during an America PAC town hall on October 26, 2024 in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. 

Samuel Corum | Getty Images News | Getty Images

A Philadelphia judge could rule at a hearing underway Monday morning that Elon Musk’s $1 million daily voter lottery should be blocked from continuing — but with just a day before Election Day that might not matter much.

Philadelphia’s district attorney last week sued the Tesla billionaire CEO and his political action committee in the county Common Court of Pleas, accusing them of running an illegal lottery by awarding cash prizes — 16 so far — to registered voters in swing states who signed a petition backing the Constitution.

Musk then got the case briefly transferred to federal court, but District Attorney Larry Krasner nearly as quickly got it returned to the county court.

Musk has said his America PAC would run the giveaway until Election Day, so if Krasner gets the injunction he is seeking from a judge at the hearing, it could save the Trump backer a million dollars or two.

— Dan Mangan

Omar Marques | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Shares of Trump’s social media company dropped as much as 8% in premarket trading, exacerbating the Truth Social operator’s stock slide just before the election.

Trump Media, which trades as DJT on the Nasdaq, aw its market cap fall more than 40% between Tuesday afternoon and Friday.

The sudden drop erased much of the company’s gains from a massive rally in October, when its share price more than tripled.

Despite its multibillion-dollar valuation, the company has posted net losses of more than $340 million on revenues of less than $2 million this fiscal year.

The frenetic trading around the stock often seems to bear little correlation to its business fundamentals. Rather, analysts see the company as a magnet for pro-Trump retail investors to support the former president and bet on his odds of beating Harris in the election.

Trump Media (DJT) Stock Price

Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris attends a campaign rally, in Erie, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 14, 2024.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Harris will spend her final day on the campaign trail holding rallies across Pennsylvania, a must-win battleground state that both Republican and Democratic strategists see as the key to winning the Oval Office.

Harris will start the day in Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton, before holding a rally in Allentown, then going on to a local stop in Reading. On Monday night, Harris will hold rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The latter two will feature musical guests, including Lady Gaga in Pittsburgh and Katy Perry in Philadelphia, according to the campaign.

Pennsylvania went for Trump in the 2016 presidential election, but flipped to Joe Biden in 2020. Polls show Harris and Trump neck and neck in the state.

— Jake Piazza

Residents of Mecklenburg County wait in line to cast their ballots near campaign signs on the last day of early voting in the state, in Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S. November 2, 2024. 

Jonathan Drake | Reuters

Roughly 76 million Americans have already voted early, both through mail-in and early in-person voting, according to NBC News.

Among the states that record voters’ party alignment, 41% of early voters are registered Democrats and 39% are registered Republicans. Early voting rules differ across states.

— Jake Piazza

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump smiles while the audience cheers during his rally in Kinston, North Carolina, U.S., November 3, 2024.

Jonathan Drake | Reuters

Trump will split his time across three battleground states on the final day before the election.

Rallies are planned in Raleigh, North Carolina; Reading, Pennsylvania; Pittsburgh, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, according to the Trump campaign.

Grand Rapids occupies a unique position in Trump campaign history: Michigan’s second-largest city has been Trump’s final stop on election eve in both of his previous presidential campaigns.

— Jake Piazza