Week 10 props that pop: Rushing, scoring props and more

Welcome to Week 10! In case you are a favorite reader of this column then you definately’ll know that Daniel and I fetch been upping the ante fair recently, making an attempt to name gettable parlays and wagers that pay out at plus odds. That has resulted in some gigantic wins, although they’ve no longer been as constant. We both bought a dinky bit bit of every little thing appropriate in Week 9, nonetheless very most attention-grabbing two bets wholly hit. That doesn’t imply we’re planning to pause this trek-spherical, though.

So buckle up, dig in, and let’s prop ’til we pop! –Loza

All odds as of newsletter time. For the most modern odds, talk about over with ESPN BET.

---

Quarterback props

Sam Darnold OVER 1.5 touchdowns (-140)

Dopp: I develop no longer generally pick on to take props which fetch a line south of -140, nonetheless this matchup is simply too simply to go and feels admire a atomize discipline. Darnold has been lights-out within the landing division with 17 passing TDs this year, tied for fourth most within the NFL. The Jags fetch been giving up passing touchdowns in bunches, with six of 9 starting QBs having hit this tag this year, and the very most attention-grabbing three to descend brief being Tua Tagovailoa (1 TD), Deshaun Watson (0 TD) and Jordan Esteem (injured for the length of the game).

With T.J. Hockenson back, Darnold now has a super complement of trek catchers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Hock to pair with a good trek-catching back in Aaron Jones. This matchup is simply too simply to brush aside and Darnold must take benefit of it right here in Week 10.

Russell Wilson bustle attempts OVER 3.5 (-155) and 15-plus rushing yards (-105)

Loza: Wilson would maybe perchance no longer be the runner he was a decade within the past, nonetheless the 35-year-feeble can aloof toddle when he wants to. Curiously, the vet ranked sixth at the set in total carries, averaging 5.3 bustle attempts per sport, in 2023. Since taking up for Justin Fields, Wilson has recorded exactly three rushing attempts in back-to-back efforts. I search recordsdata from that quantity to spike given the matchup in Week 10.

Washington’s protection has, positively, stiffened because the delivery of the season, nonetheless the Commanders can aloof be had during the bottom. Surely, the Commanders fetch been roam on at the highest price (29 attempts) over the final four weeks. Admittedly, the personnel has faced three cell QBs, with Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams and Daniel Jones recording at the very least 40 yards in each contest. Light, Andy Dalton registered two rushing attempts in 3½ quarters sooner than getting benched in Week 7. If the Crimson Rifle felt compelled to roam, then with out a doubt DangeRuss will are making an attempt to lean into his wheels at Washington. With the Commanders allowing an common of 23.6 rushing yards per sport to opposing QBs, the Steelers worth-caller looks in line for his highest rushing total of 2024.

Running back props

Jonathan Taylor OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)

Loza: Taylor’s rushing output took a success with Joe Flacco beneath center in Week 9. Alternatively, his sequence of targets drawn peaked, as he remodeled three of a season-excessive 5 looks for 11 yards at Minnesota. An uptick in Taylor’s passing sport utilization makes fair sense given Flacco’s statue-admire pocket presence. Or no longer furthermore it is a pattern that doesn’t pick to swap in Week 10 versus the Bills.

No longer very most attention-grabbing are the Colts anticipated to be chasing aspects (+4 unfold), nonetheless the Bills’ protection has been ultra-beneficiant to trek-catching RBs. Surely, Buffalo’s protection has given up the most receptions (61 of a league-excessive 76 targets) to opposing backs. With Von Miller rejoining the personnel’s trek bustle and the leisure of the unit largely back to smartly being, Taylor figures to thrive as a checkdown probability for his QB.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-135)

Dopp: Final week I purchased burned by Alvin Kamara by parlaying an anytime landing alongside with his rushing + receiving yardage prop (which smashed), so I got right here up with an sad loss regardless of accurately calling a gigantic sport. I’m no longer going to pause that again this week. In its set, I’m going to appropriate address this prop coming in at -135 in want to making an attempt to enhance my odds. Tracy is in an even discipline taking up the Carolina Panthers, who fetch allowed stop to 1 million yards on the bottom this year.

OK, OK, presumably no longer that many, nonetheless they fetch got given up the most rushing yards within the NFL. They’re allowing a wholesome 4.6 yards per carry, tied for 10th most, and they also’ve let an RB to hit this tag in eight of their 9 games this season. Tracy has hit this line very most attention-grabbing twice this year, nonetheless he did no longer take over because the starter until Week 5 and he has performed much stiffer competitors than the Panthers’ bustle protection.

This sport is taking set in Germany, so make certain you obtain this prop in sooner than you trek to bed Saturday evening, in every other case that 9:30 a.m. ET delivery time will bolt up on you! With his gigantic play capability to reduce a protection apart from to this unbelievable matchup, I’m taking Tracy OVER 69.5 rushing yards.

Other props

T.J. Hockenson OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)

Dopp: Hockenson returned to the discipline final week and performed a modest 45% of the snaps, nonetheless we’re looking ahead to that quantity to upward push right here in Week 10. No longer very most attention-grabbing pause we search recordsdata from him to play more snaps, nonetheless I’m looking ahead to him to crush this line given his passing sport prowess. I know, he doesn’t fetch Kirk Cousins beneath center this year, nonetheless having a glimpse back at final season, T.J. hit this line in 13 of his 14 games. He averaged 64 receiving yards per sport in 2023.

Now with Darnold beneath center, I’m aloof very bullish on Hockenson, no longer appropriate because of the his capability location, nonetheless also because he takes up the Jacksonville Jaguars, who fetch been a sieve against opposing groups’ trek catchers. The previous four tight ends to tackle the Jags fetch been Grant Calcaterra (30 yards), Cole Kmet (70), Tucker Kraft (78) and Hunter Henry (92). Three of four is a quiet fair indication that fair things are in store for this prop. Heck, the real fact that a backup tight dwell in Calcaterra practically hit this line showcases every little thing you will must know. I know the Vikings fetch hundreds of weapons to form the most of, nonetheless Hockenson must feast by distinction protection.

Taysom Hill to ranking an anytime landing and Atlanta Falcons @ Unusual Orleans Saints to transfer over 45.5 total aspects — YES (+350)

Loza: What’s going to have the opportunity to transfer execrable when two backside-10 defenses sq. off? The hope right here is that both offenses can convert. Curiously, the Saints fetch averaged 23 aspects per sport whereas the Falcons fetch mustered an common of 24. If both groups dwell mid, the over on 45.5 must hit.

Hill figures to remain a super section of the Unusual Orleans’ offensive sport conception. With interim coach Darren Rizzi reportedly planning to selecting up the bolt and the Saints anticipated to scoot aspects (+4), Derek Carr is at threat of on a favorite basis glimpse for the Swiss Military knife-admire participant. Given Chris Olave‘s absence and with Kendre Miller back on IR, Hill’s versatility must be leaned upon. He also recorded two rushing rankings the final time he faced Atlanta back in Week 4. A participant with a fresh capability location in a fresh location of conditions deserves special making a wager attention.

Observe Liz and Daniel on social media.